Indiana has a Jalen Brunson Problem—a Breakdown

Jalen Brunson's virtuosic shotmaking is making life miserable for the Pacers. How is New York exploiting mismatches, and what is Indiana's counter?

BY JACKSON BOAKE

A foot injury late in the first quarter of Game 2 induced a brief interlude for the Jalen Brunson onslaught. New York’s scoring maestro was held captive to the locker room with a “questionable to return” designation while the Indiana Pacers seized momentum and dashed to a 10-point halftime lead. 

Around 90 minutes later, Brunson grazed the roof of Madison Square Garden with a miraculous, high-arching fallaway jumper to extend his second-half scoring count to 23. A frenzy ensued as the Knicks put the finishing touches on a fourth-quarter masterpiece to take a 2-0 series lead.

Indiana lacks defensive firepower at the point of attack, and Brunson is weaponizing every tool at his disposal to make them pay. Let’s discuss:

Andrew Nembhard has been Indiana’s highest-minute Brunson matchup. His defensive skillset suffices for most assignments in the backcourt—quick feet, sharp reactivity, and superior positional length pose a logical counter to Brunson’s prowess. 

…Speaking candidly, this has shown to be a wildly disadvantageous matchup for Indiana through two games. Brunson is torching Nembhard from all three levels through a blend of delicate shotmaking and bruising physicality. Nembhard lacks the girth and core strength to deter Brunson from getting to his spots. 

Brunson pairs menacing shoulder drops with deft shooting touch. When he gets downhill and lowers into Nembhard’s chest, he creates a sliver of space—just large enough for lofting turnarounds, fadeaways, tear-drops, etc. Conflicting backward momentum renders Nembhard’s attempts at challenging shots useless. 

Brunson shot 9/12 when guarded by Nembhard in Game 1, per NBA tracking data. Game 2 defensive stats weren't published, but Brunson finished 11/18 from the field in 32 minutes.

Aaron Nesmith, Indiana’s other proficient ball-stopper in the starting unit, has gotten a few cracks at Brunson as well. While his 6-6, 215-pound frame is better suited to absorb the brute force of barrelling drives, Brunson’s twitch and elusiveness as a ball-handler have proven insurmountable.

Tyrese Haliburton’s defensive limitations offer another pressure point in Indiana’s defense. New York uses empty guard-guard ballscreens to bring Haliburton’s matchup, Donte DiVincenzo, into the action. Most teams would opt for a simple switch here, but Indiana hedges to keep Haliburton off the ball. DiVincenzo’s shooting gravity keeps Haliburton multitasked as Nembhard fights through the screen, which Brunson exploits with a straight-line drive to the basket.

Indiana didn’t budge from their single coverage as Brunson erupted for 21 points in the fourth quarter of Game 1. Two days later, when Brunson appeared headed down a similar path, Indiana implemented a seismic schematic shift.

Instead of surrendering advantage opportunities by continuing to hedge, Indiana switched to an extended blitz—launching double teams at Brunson in pick n' rolls and DHOs to force the ball out of his hands. Brunson relieved pressure accordingly with over-the-top passes to the roller.  

Unfortunately for Indiana, Josh Hart and Isaiah Hartenstein are excellent short-roll orchestrators in 4-v.-3 situations. With the laser spot-up threat of Donte DiVincenzo stretching the floor, the Knicks were able to generate quality looks at will. Given New York’s personnel, extended double-teams aren’t a sustainable long-term recipe for Indiana.

The actual ball-screen was cut off by the broadcast on this play, but notice the ripple effect of the blitz creating an open 3 for DiVincenzo.

Even with all that said, it’s not complete doom and gloom for Indiana just yet. Their shockingly effective counterpunch comes in the form of T.J. McConnell—a rather unsuspecting wild card off the bench inducing incessant headaches for New York. 

Despite his lack of size, McConnell has proven to be Indiana’s most formidable warden at the point of attack. His brisk lateral skills allow for amplified pressure above the arc. Through calculated swipes at the ball and a properly leveraged low center of gravity, he’s able to barricade isolations and combat Brunson’s signature slithery penetration tactics. 

Obi Toppin eastbay in a close playoff game? Nasty.

McConnell’s equally effective in engineering Indiana’s offense, repeatedly compromising a staunch New York defensive front, pressuring the rim, and generating points for himself and others. Staggering on/off numbers illustrate McConnell’s absurd impact through two games: Indiana boasts a +21.9 net rating with McConnell on the court, which plummets to -31.7 when he sits. 

Notwithstanding, Rick Carlisle sided with Andrew Nembhard as Haliburton’s backcourt-mate down over the last 7:10 of Game 2. Carlisle deliberately staggers the Haliburton-McConnell minutes to mitigate overlapping offensive strengths, but McConnell has been an undeniable additive regardless of who’s on the floor in this series—especially in comparison to Nembhard. 

Infectious energy, savvy playmaking, and impressive defensive chops make unleashing McConnell the obvious adjustment for Indiana entering a pivotal Game 3. Carlisle’s minute distribution will be under the microscope.

The series now travels to the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, where the Pacers accumulated a 26-15 record over the regular season and captured all three games against Milwaukee in Round 1. The Knicks, meanwhile, will have to manage in the absence of OG Anunoby—who’s been ruled out for Game 3 and doubtful for Game 4 with a hamstring injury. Expect either Deuce McBride or Precious Achiuwa to fill the vacancy in New York’s starting lineup.

Game 3 tips off Friday night at 7:00 PM E.S.T.