Post-Free Agency Survey—Capturing the NBA’s Changing Landscape in Eight Questions

NBA basketball returns in late October, but it'll look a little different than you remember. I synthesized the most significant shifts of the offseason by answering eight key questions.

Written & Illustrated by Jackson Boake

2024 Free Agency is more or less in the books, and while seismic shifts of the past were few and far between, the collateral impact of various moves will have its hand in high-leverage happenings of this coming season. As cap numbers shoot through the roof, so do salaries—but the newly renditioned Collective Bargaining Agreement, AKA the team-building grim reaper, is plowing through contending rosters like a wrecking ball. 

Select transactions will capture national headlines, but it’s often the lower-AAV bargains that swing title hopes in June. Look no further than last year’s Dallas Mavericks. Derrick Jones Jr. was instrumental in tooling their defensive identity predicated on length, instincts, and activity—all on a veteran minimum! Kelly Oubre injected key two-way juice into Philadelphia’s frontcourt on the same deal. Prolific acquisitions can revolutionize an organization, but they can send one into a tailspin just as quickly. It’s a risk-reward game of weighing on-court upside versus financial flexibility.

I’ve thrown together eight questions to capture the essence of this summer’s transactions in as many angles as possible. Some are restricted to free agency; others will encompass maneuvers in the trade market. To indulge in a full list of the names and numbers, click here.

Which signing shifts championship equity most dramatically?

Paul George to Sixers (4Y/$210M): The George acquisition marks the apex outcome of Daryl Morey’s master contingency plan. As the James Harden marriage wilted beyond repair, Philadelphia flipped him to Los Angeles for a rather … conservative return. Obviously, you lose leverage with an openly disgruntled asset, but a heap of mid-level draft picks and role-player rentals felt like 40 cents on the dollar. 

But Morey’s chess move was cold, crisp, and calculated, with an arrow pointed 10 months in the future. The slew of expirings wiped the slate clean around Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, the ladder of whom was yet to cash out on his rookie extension and, in turn, offered boundless financial flexibility. Ultimately, this was a gamble on the Clippers’ demise. As tensions seethed out west, Morey swooped in and poached his dream costar in George—a tantalizing amalgamation of length, shotmaking, and malleability tailor-made to fraternize with Philadelphia’s two franchise pillars.

The Sixers were first-round exits last season, but savvy offseason maneuvers and mitigated injury misfortunes (fingers crossed) set the table for genuine contention in ‘24-25.

Isaiah Hartenstein to the Thunder (3Y/$87M): Hartenstein isn’t the sexiest grab, but he was the indispensable anchor for an injury-riddled Knicks team on the doorstep of the Eastern Conference Finals. 10 years ago, we didn’t have the tools to appreciate the impact of players like Hartenstein—but modernized analytics illustrate the essence of what makes him an $87M dollar man. Advanced metrics (BPM, LEBRON, on/off rating swings) paint Hartenstein as one of the absolute best players in the league. While those probably embellish the breadth of his role, they’re founded on irrefutable truths. Hartenstein isn’t at George’s level as a basketball player, but his rebounding fills a distinct, pressing need for an otherwise rock-solid foundation with empirical title aspirations.

Which acquisition, between George and Hartenstein, holds the most weight over championship equity? I’ll let you decide.

Which trade was the most consequential?

Mikal Bridges to the Knicks: After toying with the hypothetical of effectuating the Villanova quartet for what felt like a year, New York finally pulled the trigger: departing with Bojan Bogdanovic and a profusion of draft capital in exchange for a sharpshooting wing-warden in Bridges. The Nova-Knick quartet now stars Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Done DiVincenzo, and Josh Hart—flanked by a mutant Wildcat in Julius Randle and ex-Hoosier OG Anunoby. What a time to be alive for New Yorkers.

Synergistic wonders aside, Bridges is a beautiful addition to the Big Apple. His widened offensive skillset, cultivated in Phoenix and nourished in Brooklyn, can oscillate between spacing the floor and self-creating in a pinch. Anunoby’s defensive prowess allows Bridges to freelance off the ball with his length and instincts in shared minutes on defense. It’s a no-brainer fit—he supercharges New York’s preexisting identity without causing any disruptions.

But this is a highly consequential gamble for the Knicks. Not only did they surrender a bounty of future draft picks, but financial repercussions paved the way for Isaiah Hartenstein to earn his payday elsewhere in free agency. The Knicks are risking a precipitous freefall at the center spot behind Mitchell Robinson, who has played 70 games in a season just once in his career. Competing for a championship requires risk and sacrifice—New York did just that in this cross-borough maneuver.

Which signing was most improvised?

DeMar DeRozan to the Kings (3y/$74M): I didn’t see this coming, and my intuition says neither did the Kings. A blend of limited leaguewide financial latitude and his somewhat archaic offensive archetype drove down market interest in DeRozan. After vibing in free agency for over a week, DeRozan inked a three-year, $74M deal with Sacramento. The "Beam-Team" exchanged Harrison Barnes, Chris Duarte, and a juicy 2031 first-round pick-swap in a three-team sign-and-trade for the six-time all-star.

While Sacramento isn’t the most flattering destination, it hosts an exciting basketball ecosystem founded on selfless stars, a high-character fanbase, and tornados of ball and player movement. DeRozan, a poetic mid-range scorer and mature facilitator, has a lot of juice left in the tank. But can his methodical, antiquated approach coalesce with a turbocharged tempo-pusher and low-post skull-masher in DeAaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, respectively? I have a feeling we’ll get our answers sooner rather than later.

Which contender took the biggest risk?

The Mavericks: Luka Doncic is a blessing, but one that necessitates a meticulously devised supporting cast to accentuate his strengths without magnifying the stipulations of his ball-dominant approach and conserved defensive intensity. After a whiffed playoff chase in ‘22-23, Dallas ditched its “sharpshooting” role-player parameter for beacons of length and athleticism in the frontcourt—a smashingly successful gambit. The physical imposition of Derrick Jones Jr., PJ Washington, Dereck Lively II, and Daniel Gafford suffocated drivers, tightened passing windows, and upped the altitude on Doncic-driven pick n’ roll attacks.

But this reinventive brilliance came to a screeching halt in the NBA Finals. Against a Celtics squad laden with point-of-attack stoppers and switchability, the Mavericks’ trademark heliocentrism was exposed. Thus, they faced a curious paradigm in the offseason: rerun an established formula, or swing on another counter to the unique challenges posed by a specific team?

Dallas opted for the latter by injecting five-time All-Star Klay Thompson to the mix. Thompson is one of the greatest shooters in NBA history and while he's now just a mere echo of his former self, he still bends the floor with his spot-up archery. That said, the deterioration of his auxiliary skills has narrowed his all-around utility. Fortunately for all parties involved, he’ll be relegated to focused duties as a catch-and-shoot specialist next to Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Thompson trounces Jones as a spacers, and in turn, will command a degree of defensive vigilance off the ball that dilates driving lanes for Dallas’ initiators. 

But it’s a double-edged sword. Transposing Jones with an aging veteran in Thompson complicates things defensively—a gamble that risks fracturing Dallas' newfound identity from last season. Not only did Jones boast the on-ball chops and positional versatility to assume top assignments on a nightly basis, but the ubiquity of his long limbs and unrelenting motor was instrumental in congesting off-ball real estate to cover for inevitable blow-bys surrendered by Doncic or Irving. Dallas is playing Jenga: can they remove a key defensive piece without collapsing the entire structure?

Thompson’s floor spacing will elevate the Mavericks’ offense, but time will tell if they can absorb the blow of the projectable defensive dip.

Who is the biggest victim of the newly-ratified CBA?

Denver Nuggets: Denver’s title-certified roster is falling out from beneath its feet. First Bruce Brown, now Kentavious Caldwell-Pope—the Second Apron continues to hamstring the Nuggets into unshackling coveted assets to avoid devastating future penalties. 

The NBA’s new front-office boogeyman employs trade and draft restrictions with cataclysmic repercussions in future team-building ventures. Those effects continue to reverberate leaguewide, not just through the Mile-High City, as owners weigh current title aspirations with long-term autonomy. My guess: this is what ultimately drove a wedge between Paul George and Los Angeles, as well as Klay Thompson and Golden State during negotiations.

Denver loses their best point-of-attack defender and a perennial 40+% three-point shooter in Caldwell-Pope. Christian Braun, Julian Strawther, and Justin Holiday will be tasked with replicating his steady production and unwavering stability at the two-guard spot.

Who scored this year's short-term, high-AAV deal?

Tobias Harris to the Pistons (2y/$52M): Even in today’s market, Harris isn’t worth $26M per year in a vacuum. But that’s okay! The high-cost, low-tenure deal is a savvy maneuver for teams looking to capitalize on temporary cap space while maintaining long-term flexibility. Detroit won’t need to dish out big money to Jaden Ivey for two years. When that day comes, Harris will be off the books. Why not round out your roster with a stabilizing veteran in the meantime?

There’s precedent for this type of deal—the latest being Bruce Brown to Indiana last summer. Ultimately, there’s little risk attached to short-term assets. Brown didn’t crush expectations as a Pacer, but it didn’t really matter—Toronto was happy to swipe his soon-to-be-expiring in the Pascal Siakam trade anyway. Speaking of trades: these pricey contracts are perfect for salary matching.

Coughing up $52M to Harris is definitely a sacrifice from the organization's higher-ups, but it won’t handcuff Detroit’s team-building efforts.

Which veteran-minimum signing will be most impactful?

Tyus Jones to the Suns (1y/$3.3M): With organizations spooked out of crossing first and second apron thresholds, market parity is burying the middle class in free agency. Select teams are consolidating their financial leeway on singular assets (see: Tobias Harris). The rest? Those hovering above the cap are squeezed into tightfisted spending as they dodge landmines bestrewn by the CBA. But even in this landscape, Jones is ridiculous value at the minimum. He’s the ultimate stabilizer—an immaculate decision-maker who can alleviate ball-handling responsibilities from Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant. Jones’ 7.35 assist-to-turnover ratio is the best mark since turnovers were first tracked in 1977!

Booker, Durant, and Jusuf Nurkic are locked into the Suns’ starting lineup next season. The rest is at the discretion of newly acquitted head coach Mike Budenholzer. Personally, I’d go with Jones and Grayson Allen, leaving Beal as the second-unit kingpin. 

Gary Trent Jr. to the Bucks (1Y/$2.6M): As it did for Jones, the market simply swung out of Trent’s favor. Rumors indicate that offers exceeding the minimum were on the table, but he instead opted for a one-year prove-it deal on a fledgling contender in Milwaukee. 

A drastic shortage of point-of-attack counters crushed the Bucks last season. Trent isn’t a renowned stopper by any means, but his blend of on-ball defense and spot-up shooting trumps that of Malik Beasley and Patrick Beverley—the two stopgaps from a year ago.

Who will benefit most from a change of scenery?

Josh Giddey (traded to the Bulls): The contextual variability of NBA performance is just as cruel as it is beautiful—evidenced by Giddey’s tribulations in year three. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren assuming the lion’s share of opportunity in Oklahoma City, others were tasked with focused duties of spot-up shooting and spirited defense … not exactly Giddey’s forté. He was frequently shoved into corners as a theoretical spacer and closeout-killer—both non-conducive to his limited perimeter touch and first-step burst. After grappling with fluctuating roles and involvement levels all year, Giddey was ultimately pivoted away from by the Thunder in favor of a more proven commodity in Alex Caurso.

But it’s too early to write off Giddey as a long-term asset. For the “he has no role on a good team” truthers, I’d counter with the historical precedent of complementary skills harvesting with opportunity. Take Kyle Kuzma: after struggling to find a niche on a title-winning Lakers squad, he’s widened his offensive repertoire with expanded creative freedom in Washington. When he inevitably relocates to a better team (although it’s Kyle Kuzma, so you never know), his enhanced shooting and facilitating chops should materialize as a third or fourth banana.

Giddey’s foundation of youth, size, intellect, and select talent is worth an investment. As a pace-pushing playmaking fulcrum unburdened by expectations, I’m excited to see how Giddey evolves. He’ll be bestowed with touches, furnished with athletes, and infused with confidence in Chicago.